EU-Iran relations close to crisis point

While the EU has maintained a relatively soft stance toward the Iranian government compared to the more hard-line approach adopted by the US, tensions between Brussels and Tehran have been gradually escalating across multiple fronts. This rise in tensions highlights increasing friction, which could lead to significant diplomatic consequences if not managed properly by both sides.

One of the most critical issues contributing to this deterioration is Iran’s role in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. This involvement has drawn the ire of Western nations, including those in the EU, which see it as an alarming development.

Iran’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved through several distinct phases. Initially, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei endorsed Moscow’s actions, aligning Tehran with Russia’s position. This public endorsement reflected a close relationship between the two nations. However, Iran’s support for Russia did not remain limited to verbal or diplomatic backing.

Over time, Tehran’s role in the conflict escalated from symbolic support to military involvement. Reports emerged in the first year of the war indicating that Iran was supplying Russia with kamikaze drones, which reportedly became a critical component of Moscow’s military operations. These drones, specifically modified by Iranian engineers with advanced explosives, have proven to be highly effective and have caused significant destruction. This underscored Iran’s expanding influence in the conflict and its growing role as a key supplier of military hardware to Russia, further exacerbating tensions between Iran and the West.

One of the most critical issues contributing to this deterioration is Iran’s role in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

The next phase in Iran’s involvement saw it take an even more direct approach by sending troops to Crimea to assist Russia in its military operations. In September 2022, these actions were further corroborated when the US Department of Defense confirmed that Iran had supplied Russia with Fath 360 short-range ballistic missiles, which are capable of hitting targets with precision.

The EU has issued warnings to Iran about its involvement in supplying military hardware to Russia, particularly ballistic missiles. Its disapproval of Iran’s actions became more evident last week, when Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, submitted a formal proposal to member states urging them to impose sanctions on Tehran.

This was seen as a direct response to Iran’s continued supply of ballistic missiles to Russia, in defiance of earlier warnings. The Iranian government responded with diplomatic action, summoning the ambassadors of the UK, France, Germany and the Netherlands to express its dissatisfaction with the accusations leveled against Tehran regarding its missile transfers. The Iranian leadership has consistently denied supplying such weapons.

Moreover, the UK, France and Germany this month took further steps to counter Iran’s missile supply to Russia. In a joint statement, they described Iran’s actions as a significant escalation in the conflict. “We will be taking immediate steps to cancel bilateral air services agreements with Iran,” the statement read. The three countries also announced their intention to pursue the designation of key entities and individuals associated with Iran’s ballistic missile program. These new measures appear to be aimed at curbing Iran’s ability to provide additional support to Russia, especially in the form of ballistic missile supplies.

In the next stage of these rising tensions, diplomatic relations between the EU and Iran may face complete severance

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

The second major point of contention that has strained EU-Iran relations is the latter’s nuclear program. Iran’s nuclear ambitions have long been a source of concern for the international community, but in recent years Tehran has made rapid advancements in its nuclear technology. It is now reportedly only a short step away from possessing the capacity to produce nuclear weapons.

This alarming development has brought renewed urgency to the issue. Talks aimed at reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal have repeatedly failed, leaving diplomatic channels between Iran and the EU at a critical impasse.

Should tensions related to both the Russia-Ukraine war and Iran’s nuclear program continue to escalate, the EU is likely to respond with a series of punitive measures. Firstly, political sanctions will undoubtedly increase, further damaging the already fragile diplomatic relationship between Iran and the EU. These sanctions could target key figures within the Iranian government, as well as individuals associated with its military and nuclear programs.

In addition, economic sanctions may be imposed, significantly disrupting trade between Tehran and European countries. While some limited trade still takes place between Iran and the bloc, comprehensive economic sanctions could effectively halt these exchanges, which would have severe consequences for Iran’s already struggling economy.

In the next stage of these rising tensions, diplomatic relations between the EU and Iran may face complete severance. Such a move would mark a significant shift in international relations and further isolate the Iranian government on the world stage. Without diplomatic ties, it would become exceedingly difficult for Tehran to engage with European nations, resulting in a sharp decline in cooperation on a wide range of issues. In response to this isolation, Iran is likely to escalate its defiance, particularly concerning its nuclear program. This would lead to a dangerous cycle of provocations and sanctions, with no clear resolution in sight.

In conclusion, relations between the EU and Iran have now reached their lowest point in years and the situation shows no signs of improvement. With two major issues — Iran's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war and its advancing nuclear program — fueling tensions, the likelihood of further deterioration remains high. If these underlying issues are not addressed soon, the relationship could spiral into a full-blown diplomatic crisis, with serious implications for both sides.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh